Schwarzenegger Threatens AB 8 Veto: Update

An article in this morning’s Los Angeles Times (Schwarzenegger criticizes Democrats healthplan) makes explicit what was implicit in the Sacramento Bee story I posted about last night: he won’t sign a bill without an individual mandate. The Times quotes the Governor as saying any health care legislation he signs “needs to have mandatory healthcare coverage [...]

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[Source: The Alan Katz Health Care Reform Blog]

Open Chat: Left Sides of the Infield

The National League East boasts two of the youngest and best left sides of the infield in all of baseball. David Wright and Jose Reyes of the New York Mets and Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez of the Florida Marlins are about as good as it gets when it comes to third basemen and shortstops. All four players are also young still under the control of their teams, adding to their value.

A (strong) argument on behalf of the New York Yankees could be made that Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter form the best left side in baseball. However, ARod and Jetes are 32 and 33 years old, respectively. Rodriguez costs about $25 million per season, a salary that will zoom even higher for 2008 and beyond after he opts out of his current deal. Jeter is earning north of $20 million. Together, these two are making about 50% more than the entire payroll of the Marlins.

Questions:

1. If you were a GM, which left side would you pick for the remainder of the season, irrespective of cost?

2. As a fantasy owner, which left side would you pick for *next* season?

3. If you owned a MLB club, which left side would you pick, giving consideration to all factors, including age, contract status, free agency, etc.?

Your answers can come from the teams and players mentioned above or from any other pair not highlighted.

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[Source: Baseball Analysts]

Health IT May Actually Make Nurses' Jobs Harder

Some nurses are complaining that health IT is adding to their administrative burden and reducing the amount of time they have available to spend with their patients. The Baltimore...

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[Source: About.com Health Insurance]

Number of Americans without health insurance climbs

The number of Americans without health insurance rose last year from 44.8 million, or 15.3% of the population, to 47 million, or 15.8%, the Census Bureau reported today.

In a report on income, poverty and health insurance coverage, the bureau also said that the median household income -- the income level of Americans at dead center of the U.S. economy -- rose seven-tenths of one point to $48,201 last year, mainly because more people were working full time.

Analysts said the figures showed that the nation was still a long way from making it back to where it was before the last recession in 2001, and helped explain why working Americans were more pessimistic than the overall economic numbers might suggest they should be.

"The only people who have recovered their position from the previous expansion are those near the top of the income distribution. The rest of Americans are still waiting to recover the ground they lost," said Gary Burtless, a senior economist with the Brookings Institution in Washington.

Median household income peaked in 1999 at $49,244, then fell for five years before climbing back in 2005 and last year. But the improvement was not the product of higher earnings but more work. Real median earnings of men and women who worked full time declined in 2006. For men, the decline was 1.1%, to $42,300; for women it was 1.2%, to $32,500.

The nation's official poverty rate experienced its first significant decline of this decade, from 12.6% in 2005 to 12.3% last year.

Most of the problem with health insurance were traceable to the continued erosion of employer-based healthcare coverage. The percentage of people covered by employer plans decreased to 59.7% of the population in 2006, down from 60.2% in 2005.

Click here for your free California health insurance quote now!

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[Source: Health Insurance Blog]

A Preview of This Year's Free Agent Class: Part One - The Hitters

As the baseball season enters the home stretch, I thought it would be a change of pace to take a look at this year's free agent class. Today's sneak preview focuses on position players. I will complete the two-part series tomorrow by concentrating on starting pitchers and relievers.

Depending on what happens with Alex Rodriguez and several players with club options, the free agent crop ranges from uninspiring to . . . well . . . inspiring. Here is a guide broken down position-by-position.

Catchers

Brad Ausmus         HOUPaul Bako           BALMichael Barrett     SDGary Bennett        STLRamon Castro        NYMWiki Gonzalez       WASJason Kendall       CHCJason LaRue         KCPaul Lo Duca        NYMDamian Miller       MILChad Moeller        CINJose Molina         NYYJosh Paul           TBJorge Posada        NYYIvan Rodriguez      DETYorvit Torrealba    COLJavier Valentin     CIN

Two of the best catchers in the game could become free agents after the end of the season, as well as a number of serviceable backstops.

Jorge Posada (.329/.411/.528) is not only having what looks like a career year but perhaps the best offensive season by any 35-year-old catcher in the game's history. Although there is no doubt that the Yankees want to keep Posada and can afford to bring him back, I can't help but think there could be an issue as far as the number of years involved. The Yankees will probably offer two years with perhaps a club option for a third while Posada will undoubtedly want three years guaranteed.

The Detroit Tigers have a $13M club option on Ivan Rodriguez for the 2008 season. Given the $3M buyout, one could argue that the cost to bring back I-Rod is only $10M. Thanks to EIGHT walks in 442 plate appearances, the future Hall of Famer's .288 OBP is as low as it has been since his rookie season in 1991. That's not all. I-Rod's AVG (.274) and SLG (.415) are at 14-year lows. It's a tough call at this point but look for Rodriguez to spend one more summer in Motown.

First Basemen

Sean Casey          DETTony Clark          ARZJeff Conine         NYMJulio Franco        ATLKevin Millar        BALOlmedo Saenz        LADMark Sweeney        LADMike Sweeney        KC

Unless a club is looking for a veteran pinch hitter on the cheap, there's not much to choose from this year's crop of free agent first basemen. Don't be surprised if one or two retire while the others cross their fingers and hope they can prolong their careers for another season or two.

Kevin Millar's $2.75M option for 2008 is guaranteed with 475 plate appearances in 2007. Given that Millar is within 20 PA of the threshhold, he is a virtual certainty of returning to the Orioles next season. His salary will increase based on the number of games played and additional plate appearances but is likely to be in the vicinity of $3M.

Second Basemen

Marlon Anderson     NYMCraig Biggio        HOULuis Castillo       NYMDamion Easley       NYMMark Ellis          OAKMarcus Giles        SDTony Graffanino     MILTadahito Iguchi     PHI Jeff Kent           LADMark Loretta        HOUKaz Matsui          COL Luis Rivas          CLEJose Valentin       NYM

The list of second basemen is a bit thin, especially after accounting for the club options that are likely to be exercised. However, this is more the norm than not at a one of the most replaceable and affordable positions on the field.

The Oakland A's hold a $5M club option with a $0.25M buyout on Mark Ellis. Given his offensive production (.262/.322/.421 with a career-high 16 HR) and defensive excellence, it would be a surprise if the A's didn't exercise their option on the 30-year-old second baseman.

Marcus Giles was non-tendered by the Atlanta Braves a year ago. He signed a one-year contract for $3.25M with the San Diego Padres in December with the club holding a $4M option for 2008. Based on his disappointing performance (.229/.300/.322) to date, the Padres are unlikely to bring Giles back next season, especially at $4M. However, it's possible that the two sides could work out a deal to keep the Brothers Giles together for one more season but at a greatly reduced price in the case of Marcus.

Matt Antonelli, 22, is on the verge of becoming San Diego's everyday second baseman. He has hit .305/.402/.490 with 21 HR, 82 BB, and 28 SB in High-A and AA this season. The 17th overall pick in the 2006 draft, Antonelli has developed home run power that was unseen in his professional debut last year and throughout his collegiate career at Wake Forest. Craig Stansberry, who was called up to the big league club 10 days ago when Giles went on the DL with a knee sprain, could serve as an interim solution if Antonelli isn't ready next spring. Claimed off waivers by the Padres last December, Stansberry hit .273/.370/.446 with 14 HR and 70 BB in 124 games with Portland (AAA). Born in Saudi Arabia, the 25-year-old played for the World team in the Futures Game during All-Star weekend in San Francisco.

Tadahito Iguchi was signed as a free agent from Japan in January 2005. The White Sox exercised a club option last October, paying him $3.25M for 2007. It included a clause requiring the White Sox (now the Phillies) to extend the deal before the conclusion of the 2007 season or grant him his release, effectively making Iguchi a free agent after three years of MLB service. Iguchi filled in admirably for Chase Utley in August when the latter was on the DL but doesn't fit into Philadelphia's longer-term plans. He won't have any trouble finding a suitor for his services next season.

Kaz Matsui has the same clause in his contract as Iguchi. After earning $20M from 2004-06, Matsui re-signed as a free agent last November for $1.5M. Given his success with the Rockies, it's possible that a mutually acceptable deal could be reached to keep Matsui in Colorado for another year or two.

Jeff Kent inked a one-year extension in March 2006 that called for a signing bonus of $2M, a salary of $9M, and a club option for 2008 at $9M plus $2.35M in performance incentives and escalators or a buyout of $0.5M. His option becomes guaranteed with 550 plate appearances in 2007. With almost 500 PA through yesterday, Kent, who turns 40 next March, is almost a sure thing to be back with the Dodgers in 2008.

Here is a list of all the second basemen aged 40 and above who played in 100 or more games:

PLAYER       OPS+ YEAR AGE TEAM  G  AB  R   H  2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO   AVG   OBP   SLG Joe Morgan   103  1984  40 OAK 116 365 50  89  21  0  6  43  66  39  .244  .356  .351 Nap Lajoie    99  1915  40 PHA 129 490 40 137  24  5  1  61  11  16  .280  .301  .355Craig Biggio  83  2006  40 HOU 145 548 79 135  33  0 21  62  40  84  .246  .306  .422Nap Lajoie    79  1916  41 PHA 113 426 33 105  14  4  2  35  14  26  .246  .272  .312R. Maranville 60  1933  41 BSN 143 478 46 104  15  4  0  38  36  34  .218  .274  .266R. Maranville 59  1932  40 BSN 149 571 67 134  20  4  0  37  46  28  .235  .295  .284

The good news for Kent is that these players are – or will be – Hall of Famers. The bad news for the Dodgers is that only one of them had an OPS+ equal to or better than 100. But just maybe today's 40 is yesteryear's 35, giving Los Angeles and its fans hope that Kent can be productive for at least one more season.

Shortstops

David Eckstein      STLCesar Izturis       PITRamon E Martinez    LADJohn McDonald       TORNeifi Perez         DETJuan Uribe          CHWOmar Vizquel        SF

This is your year if you like good-field, no-hit shortstops. Even steroids haven't helped one of the members of this punchless group.

Cesar Izturis is in the final season of a three-year, $9.9M contract. There is zero chance that the Pirates will exercise their $5.45M option for 2008. Juan Uribe is also at the tail-end of a three-year deal that paid him $9.75M. The White Sox have a $5M club option for 2008. Uribe brings solid defense and . . . gasp . . . some power to the position but, with an OBP of .263 in 2006-07, is a certified out machine as a hitter.

Ramon Martinez re-signed a one-year deal with the Dodgers last November for $0.8M with a $1M club option for 2008. He's not really needed but flip a coin as to whether Ned Colletti brings back one of his favorites next season.

Third Basemen

Russell Branyan     STLCorey Koskie        MILMike Lamb           HOUMike Lowell         BOSGreg Norton         TBAbraham O. Nunez    PHIAlex Rodriguez      NYY 

OK, now we're talking. The player whose first name starts with an "A" and last name ends with a "z" holds all the cards. No, not Abraham Nunez. We're talking about Alex Rodriguez here. The Yankees third baseman has a 10-day window after the World Series to void his contract. The Texas Rangers are hoping and praying that A-Rod opts out of his agreement. Texas, which has already subsidized the Yankees to the tune of approximately $46M over the past four years, will no longer be on the hook for about $21.3M if the future Hall of Famer terminates the 10-year contract he signed in December 2000.

Under the current arrangement, the Yankees are only on the hook for $15.9M in 2008, $16.9M in 2009, and $17.9M in 2010. Should A-Rod opt out as expected, New York will most likely need to bump up its financial obligation by an average of roughly $13M for each of the next three years and add at least two more years to the back end of the contract at a minimum of $30M per season.

In the improbable event that Rodriguez chooses not to void his contract this year, he may opt out after 2008 or 2009 unless the club increases his 2009-10 salary by $5M/year or $1M more than the highest-paid MLB position player. You can check out additional details at Cot's Baseball Contracts.

The Milwaukee Brewers and Toronto Blue Jays will split Corey Koskie's $0.5M buyout. Look for the 34-year-old third baseman, who has been out all season with a postconcussion syndrome, to hang up his cleats for good. Greg Norton (.219/.343/.315) should follow Koskie's lead and retire as well. Suffice it to say that Tampa Bay will not exercise the $1M club option for 2008.

Outfielders

Bobby Abreu         NYYMoises Alou         NYMBarry Bonds         SFMilton Bradley      SDMike Cameron        SDBrady Clark         SDJeff DaVanon        OAKAdam Dunn           CINDarin Erstad        CWSLuis Gonzalez       LADShawn Green         NYMEric Hinske         BOSTorii Hunter        MINGeoff Jenkins       MILAndruw Jones        ATLBobby Kielty        BOSRob Mackowiak       SDOrlando Palmeiro    HOUCorey Patterson     BALAaron Rowand        PHIReggie Sanders      KCSammy Sosa          TEXBrad Wilkerson      TEX

Outside of Posada and the two Rodriguezes, almost all of the talent in this year's free agent class of hitters will come from the pool of outfielders. Counting Barry Bonds, there are seven players who will get the attention of more than one team. They will be expensive, especially in a market with too many dollars chasing too few players. Supply and demand will dictate that three or four players among Bobby Abreu, Mike Cameron, Adam Dunn, Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, and Aaron Rowand will get deals that turn heads.

The Yankees have a $16M club option on Abreu for 2008. Although the 34-year-old right fielder's overall production (.284/.366/.443) isn't worthy of that salary, his second half numbers (.321/.393/.567) just might be enough to earn one more year in pinstripes. If New York passes, Abreu will receive a buyout of $2M.

Dunn will be contacted by several teams if the Reds choose not to exercise their $13M club option for 2008 that could escalate to $16M based on award bonuses. His agents should be fired for only negotiating a $0.5M buyout but that is another story. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, "if club exercised 2008 option, Dunn receives full no-trade clause until 6/15/2008 and limited no-trade clause for the remainder of 2008 (allowing Dunn to specify 10 clubs to which he would accept a trade)."

Cameron, Hunter, Jones, and Rowand comprise a bountiful crop of center fielders. Cameron, who is putting up his usual offensive stats and chasing down flyballs in Petco, and Rowand, who is more than matching his previous career season in 2004, won't break the bank and could prove to be better values than the more highly touted Hunter and Jones.

Bonds is a special case. He earned $15.8M plus as much as $4.2M in performance bonuses this season. Other than the Giants, I don't see any team offering Bonds the opportunity to make $20M next year. If GM Brian Sabean has his way, San Francisco might not even be in the running for his services. However, owner Peter Magowan may give Bonds a chance to reach 3,000 hits by accommodating him for one more season unless he is indicted on tax evasion and perjury charges when the grand jury reconvenes later this month.

Kosuke Fukudome, who has played his entire career with the Chunichi Dragons in Japan, will be an unrestricted free agent not subject to the posting process. Nicknamed the Dome, the reigning Central League MVP has line-drive power, good on-base skills, and a strong arm. Mike Plugh at Baseball Prospectus has a more complete list of potential free agents and posting candidates from Japan.

Be sure to check back tomorrow for a discussion of the free agent pitchers about to hit the market.

Sources: Cot's Baseball Contracts and Baseball-Reference.com Play Index.

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[Source: Baseball Analysts]

May I have Seconds?

Despite playing with the PITCHf/x data since the playoffs last season, I didn't have a very firm understanding on how the values were captured until earlier this week when I was alerted to Alan Nathan's fantastic website on the physics of baseball. The whole site is good, but I was particularly interested in the section on the PITCHf/x system. In addition to Nathan's analysis on pitch data, this section contains a treasure trove of general information about the system as well as specific definitions for each data field. Using several of Nathan's equations, I was able to quantify where a pitch is in space at any time from release until it reaches home, and using these locations, I was able visualize the entire trajectory of each pitch, similar to what is shown for each pitch in the Gameday window.

The equation for finding the x position of a pitch is x(t)=x0+vx0*t+0.5*ax*t^2, where t is time, vx0 is the pitch's initial velocity in the x direction and ax is it's acceleration in the x direction. Vx0 and ax are provided in the xml, so finding the x coordinate of a pitch is as easy as plugging in a value for t. The y and z coordinates of a pitch are found using the same equation, but with the appropriate initial velocity and acceleration values. Here's the path of a Rich Hill curveball from July 21st.

Time(s)   x       y        z0.00      1.31    50.00    6.760.05      1.24    44.78    6.810.10      1.15    39.61    6.770.15      1.02    34.49    6.620.20      0.86    29.42    6.380.25      0.67    24.40    6.030.30      0.45    19.43    5.580.35      0.19    14.52    5.040.39     -0.01    10.87    4.560.45     -0.40    4.84     3.630.49     -0.64    1.42     3.03

If I were really good I would have a 3 dimensional graph here, but it looks the same as the path they show in Gameday for the pitch. Each coordinate is measured in feet, with 0,0,0 being the back part of home plate and y=1.42 being the front of home plate. X measures left and right, from the catchers perspective, with negative numbers being on his left, y is the distance from the pitchers mound to home plate and z is vertical distance from the ground. This curveball ended in the high, inside quadrant of the strike-zone for a right-handed hitter.

The first thing I noticed in the chart is that the pitch reached the front edge of home plate in .49 seconds. Using radar guns to measure the velocity of a pitch is established practice throughout baseball, however, the speed of a pitch varies based on where the gun is aimed, so saying a pitch is 71 MPH doesn't really mean anything. Was it 71 MPH out of the pitcher's hand? Crossing the plate? "Fast" gun? "Slow" gun? You could get four correct, but different radar readings for the same pitch. What really matters is the time a batter has to react to a pitch. Saying Hill's curveball takes .486 seconds to travel from release point to home (from y=50 to y=1.417) while his fastball takes .387 seconds shows a clear, tangible difference between the pitches. For a rough comparison, a Joel Zumaya fastball takes around .353 seconds and a Tim Wakefield knuckleball takes .544 seconds to make the journey. I'm not sure which is more amazing, that Zumaya's fastball gets to the plate so fast, or that Wakefield's knuckleball, the slowest pitch in baseball, still gets to the plate in half a second.

Here's a list of the 10 pitches that have reached home fastest this season, along with the corresponding release point radar reading. (For simplicity, I only used pitches that were tracked for 50 feet, which is why Zumaya does not appear on the list.) Looking at the list and the rest of the fast pitches in my database, it appears that there might be a little bit of a park factor involved with the results, although the names are who you would expect.

Player                Date       Time(s)  MPHJustin Verlander      7/15.3477     101.7Matt Lindstrom        7/24      .3479     99.6J.J. Putz             7/28      .3482     101.3Jonathan Broxton      7/15      .3488     99.6J.J. Putz             7/28      .3492     101.6J.J. Putz             7/28      .3492     101.5Matt Lindstrom        7/3       .3496     100.3Justin Verlander      7/15      .3497     100.8Matt Lindstrom        7/3       .3499     100.4Matt Lindstrom       7/24      .3500     99.4

Getting back to Hill, graphing the trajectory of his fastball and curveball shows the differences in flight paths. This graph is drawn as if you were looking down from above, showing movement in the x-direction, with the release points at the top right of the graph and home plate in the bottom middle.

From the graph, you can see the different routes the pitches take. For the first 10 feet, Hill's curve looks very similar to his fastball, although after that the curve begins to break, moving away from left-handed hitters. The dotted line is a rough guess at the sight line for a left-handed hitter and illustrates how difficult it is for a left-handed hitter to hit a good curve from a left-handed pitcher. While both pitches begin at around the same location, the curveball actually goes behind a left-handed hitter's field of vision and appears that it will hit him for a split-second.

This graph is a side view of Hill's pitches, viewed from the first base line. Again the differences between the pitches are pretty clear to see, with the curveball taking a longer route to cover the same distance as the fastball. One thing to notice on this graph is that the curveball actually goes up after Hill releases it. It's not a big movement, but the pitch reaches it's maximum z-value .05 seconds after it has been released. On this graph the dotted line gives a rough idea of the eye level of a hitter and you can see that the curveball crosses the line much closer to home than the fastball does. I believe it is harder to look up and see a curveball that is above your eyes than it is to look down and see a fastball. Not only is the timing of a hitter thrown off by a curve, but where he's looking for the pitch is also thrown off.

There has been research done that shows the release points measured by the PITCHf/x system are not very consistent for different stadiums, so any research that uses the release point information needs to take that into account. However, according to Dr. Nathan's website, the only values in the xml files that are observed directly are the accelerations and initial velocities and positions, all of which are based of the release point. Every other value in the xml, including where the pitch crosses the plate and the break values, are calculated from those nine observed values. This opens the door to all kinds of problems if the release points are still as inconsistent as they were at the beginning of the year. This could also help explain the park factor I mentioned with times, because if the release point is slightly off it will directly impact the time calculations.

There are a number of cases where pitches are badly tracked, and another problem with the system is that it occasionally picks up a ball transfer between the umpire and pitcher. I haven't done any digging into this, so this is pure speculation, but knowing more about how the values are calculated, I think perhaps these two problems are related. If the initial values are somehow wrong (they correspond with the ball exchange), the x,y coordinates for where the ball crosses the plate are going to be calculated correctly for the ball exchange, but will not match the reality of the pitch.

********************

I referred to Alan Nathan's website countless times while I was writing this article and his kinematic equations are the basis for this article. I also want to thank him for helping answer some questions I had about the data and his equations. I highly recommend checking out his site, particularly his analysis on the PITCHf/x data.

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[Source: Baseball Analysts]

Aetna Health Insurance Plan To Qualify

Are you looking for some inside information on aetna health insurance ? Here's an up-to-date report from aetna health insurance experts who should know.

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Buy california health insurance plan and free health insurance is california health insurance quote is aetna health insurance. I'd like to begin my Aetna health insurance quote now. UVa retirees will also be eligible to enroll in Aetna's long-term care insurance plan. Preventive care is a high priority with Aetna health insurance.

The cooperation of the insurance companies has been outstanding, as it was with the Aetna Insurance Company in the original survey. Ward that they review the files of the Aetna Insurance Company to ascertain which clinical problems led to malpractice suits. You may also continue the insurance at retirement or termination by paying the premiums directly to Aetna.

Live in California? Click here for your free Aetna health insurance quote now!

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[Source: Health Insurance Blog]