Hasty Health Care Reform a Bad Idea

I’ve written ad naseum on the danger inherent in the Legislature hastily passing health care reform.The unintended consequencesfrom enacting changes in something as complicated as health care without thoroughly vetting the ramifications could make matters worse, not better.I’m not alone in this concern:“I hope that none of these ill-conceived, quickly thrown together plans will pass [...]

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[Source: The Alan Katz Health Care Reform Blog]

Kings of the Road

In yesterday's article, I identified the leading candidates for the Cy Young Awards and listed their qualifications with a focus on who *should* win rather than who *will* win.

The race for the American League CYA is wide open with at least five legitimate candidates while the National League has two pitchers who are equally worthy and a couple more who have an outside shot as the season approaches the Labor Day weekend.

What's interesting to me in the NL is that the two principal hopefuls pitch in ballparks that are distinctively different. Arizona's Brandon Webb pitches his home games in a hitter's park whereas San Diego's Jake Peavy performs home games in one of the most pitcher friendly environments in recent baseball history. Advantage Peavy, right?

Well, let's take a closer look at Webb's and Peavy's home and road splits:

Brandon Webb

          G   W-L    IP    H    R   ER  HR   BB   SO   ERA   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPSHome     12   6-4   82.2  81   33   27   4   32   76  2.97  .258  .327  .369  .696Away     15   8-4  109.0  83   35   29   5   26   90  2.39  .206  .258  .286  .544Totals   27  14-8  191.7 164   68   56   9   58  166  2.63  .229  .288  .323  .611

Not surprisingly, Webb has bettered his home stats while pitching away from Chase Field. He has started three more games and thrown 26.1 additional innings on the road. I'm not sure if that is by design or sheer luck but Webb's adjusted stats may slightly overstate his pitching prowess this year if the formula assumes an equal number of starts at home and on the road.

Jake Peavy

          G   W-L    IP    H    R   ER  HR   BB   SO   ERA   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPSHome     16   7-5  104.0  91   34   33   5   30  112  2.86  .236  .298  .329  .627Away     11   8-0   73.2  42   13   10   2   24   85  1.22  .163  .235  .225  .460Totals   27  15-5  177.2 133   47   43   7   54  197  2.18  .207  .273  .287  .558 

Based on Peavy's away numbers, I think it is safe to say that his success is not a product of Petco Park. Sure, he is pitching well at home. But check out those road stats. Peavy is 8-0 with a 1.22 ERA outside of Petco. With an AVG/OBP/SLG against line of .163/.235/.225, he's making hitters long to be Nick Punto (.199/.290/.258), who has the lowest OPS of any regular player in baseball.

During Bob Gibson's CYA and MVP season in 1968 when he fashioned a 1.12 ERA during the Year of the Pitcher, opponents "hit" .184/.233/.236 against him. Gibson's OPS was .469 that year. Peavy's OPS on the road in 2007 has been .460. That's right, Peavy's road numbers are comparable to what Gibby put up in what some believe to be the best season ever by a pitcher. In fairness to the Hall of Famer, he tossed over 300 innings so his sample size is more than four times Peavy's. But the purpose of this exercise is to make sure voters don't discount Peavy's performance this year based on the fact that he pitches his home games at Yellowstone Petco Park.

Just as Webb's adjusted numbers may overstate his case, Peavy's adjusted totals may actually understate his success. Either way, the native of Mobile, Alabama is having a truly remarkable year. Excluding teammate Chris Young's current season, Roger Clemens (1.87 in 2005) is the only pitcher in the NL over the past ten years to forge a lower ERA than Peavy's current mark of 2.18.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
SINGLE SEASON ERA LEADERS
1998-2006

                              YEAR     ERA     1   Roger Clemens            2005     1.87    2   Greg Maddux              1998     2.22    3   Jake Peavy               2004     2.27    4   Randy Johnson            2002     2.32    5   Jason Schmidt            2003     2.34    6   Kevin Brown              1998     2.38    7   Andy Pettitte            2005     2.39    8   Kevin Brown              2003     2.39    9   Mark Prior               2003     2.43   10   Al Leiter                1998     2.47   

As shown, Peavy had a similar ERA in 2004 and his peripheral stats (save for HR) are comparable. However, Peavy is on pace to throw about 54 more innings this season.

          IP      ERA   ERA+   K/9   BB/9   HR/92002     97.2    4.52    85   8.29   3.04   1.012003    194.2    4.11    96   7.21   3.79   1.532004    166.1    2.27   177   9.36   2.87   0.702005    203.0    2.88   134   9.58   2.22   0.802006    202.1    4.09   103   9.56   2.76   1.022007    177.2    2.18   189   9.97   2.74   0.35

Source: FanGraphs

I'm not surprised in the least by Peavy's success. He pitched much better than most people realized in the first half last season when he was ridiculed for posting a 4-8 record with a 4.46 ERA. Peavy proceeded to go 7-6 with a 3.68 ERA in the second half even though his peripheral stats were roughly the same pre- and post- All-Star break.

Peavy beat Arizona 3-1 last night, enabling the Padres to pull within two games of the Diamondbacks for first place in the NL West. Jake allowed one run, three hits, and three walks in seven innings. He struck out 11 for the third consecutive start (including seven in a row at one point) and reached double digits for the eighth time this year, running his NL lead to 197.

Webb is scheduled to start tonight and could match Peavy's win total of 15 with a victory. He will be gunning for his seventh straight in the hopes of putting some distance between the D-Backs and the Padres.

As for the Cy Young Award, a strong case can be made for Peavy and an equally strong case can be made on behalf of Webb. It's so close, I would be comfortable giving the award to Brandon Peavy. Or maybe Jake Webb.

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[Source: Baseball Analysts]

One-fifth of Californians lack health insurance, report says

A record number of Californians - an estimated 6.7 million adults and children that account for nearly one in five of the state's residents - went without health care insurance last year, according to new figures released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Nationwide, about 47 million Americans lack health coverage, including 8.7 million children - also record numbers, the report said.

The estimates are part of an annual analysis of poverty and health care in the United States, which also showed that median household income nationwide rose seven-tenths of one point in 2006 to $48,201 - still below the peak of $49,244 reached in 1999.

Many public policy experts and elected officials were especially concerned about the health care data, especially for children because the number of uninsured kids grew for the second year in a row.

"The trend I've been seeing is the growing number of children in middle class families who lack coverage," said Jim Keddy, director of PICO California, part of a national coalition of faith-based community groups that advocates for the poor.

"As health care costs go up, more and more families are either not being offered health insurance through work or what they are offered costs too much."

The new Census estimates show that about 816,000 children in California lack health care - which means that most of them receive medical services at hospital emergency rooms and community clinics.

After months of talking about the issue, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders are increasingly focused on ideas for extending coverage to more Californians who lack insurance.

The governor has proposed a plan aimed at covering all Californians without health insurance by having workers, employers and care providers share the cost of expanded coverage. He would also mandate that residents have insurance.

Democratic leaders have proposed a plan that would cover only working families that now lack coverage, with the lion's share of the costs being paid by employers.

Another plan pending before the Legislature would create a single-payer program where all residents are covered under a plan managed by the state and funded through taxes.

Click here for your free California health insurance quote now!

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[Source: Health Insurance Blog]

A Minor League Site of Their Own

Sean Forman has done it again. The genius behind Baseball-Reference.com has now created a similar site for the minor leagues. The minor league data goes back to 1992 and is current through September 4, 2007.

You can go to the home page and get the standings and league stats for any league by clicking on the links. You can check out the 2007 Southern League or go back a dozen years and see what took place in the 1995 Pacific Coast League.

Wanna know who led the minors in home runs this year? No problem. Click on this link and you'll get the top 100. For the curious, the answer is Craig Brazell. After studying his player page, I wouldn't place a nickel on his chances of succeeding in the majors. He's played 10 years in the minors and has 161 BB and 741 SO to show for his efforts. The left-handed-hitting first baseman had a cup of coffee with the Mets in 2004 and did little to impress scouts back then. He's a minor league lifer.

While you're at the 2007 Batting Leaders for Home Runs page, be sure to click on any of the column headings to sort your favorite category from top to bottom. The 2007 Batting Leaders for Stolen Bases? None other than Ovandy Suero, a 25-year-old Detroit Tiger farmhand wasting his time playing for Lakeland of the High-A Florida State League.

Do you think Jay Bruce might be a legitimate prospect? Well, go to the 2007 AAA Batting Leaders for Age and check it out for yourself. Not too bad for a 20-year-old, huh? Adam Jones, Billy Butler, Carlos Gomez, Daric Barton, and Evan Longoria stand out as 21-year-olds. Butler and Barton walked more than they struck out. That's always an excellent sign for a youngster, especially for a power hitter like Butler (who is hitting .305/.359/.465 in 281 plate appearances at the MLB level). I've seen him play in person and he reminds me of Greg Luzinski in terms of size, position, poor glove, (lack of) speed, and his ability to hit for average and power.

You can do any and all of the above for pitchers, too. Ever wonder who led the minors in strikeouts this year? Simple. Go to 2007 Pitching Leaders for Strikeouts and there you have it, sorted from 1-100 with all of the other pertinent stats right there at your disposal. Tip: The top 15 are all pretty good prospects. In addition to the rate stats at the far right of the page, be sure to pay attention to age vs. level. Edinson Volquez, Allan Horne, and Jack Egbert are not nearly as special as Clay Buchholz (who, as you know, has already thrown a no-hitter in the majors even though he is two years younger than all three) or Clayton Kershaw (who pitched at the same level despite being FIVE years younger).

Hey, I could go on and on but it would be better if you just let yourself loose inside those pages. Go ahead and indulge. Now. Have fun. But not so much fun that you forget to come back and read Joe S. Sheehan's Command Post article tomorrow. See you then and *here*.

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[Source: Baseball Analysts]

California Health Care Reform: Public Maneuvers

The budget passes the Legislature and, within hours, the negotiations over health care reform goes public in a big way.Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger tells the Sacramento Bee editorial board he’ll veto the Legislative Leadership’s bill, Assembly Bill 8 (view post), if it places the entire burden of funding reform on business and lacks a requirement that [...]

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[Source: The Alan Katz Health Care Reform Blog]

Medicare Refuses To Pay For Preventable Errors

Medicare has announced that in an effort to cut costs and improve healthcare quality, it will stop paying hospitals for preventable errors. According to the New York Times, private...

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[Source: About.com Health Insurance]

Schwarzenegger Threatens AB 8 Veto: Update

An article in this morning’s Los Angeles Times (Schwarzenegger criticizes Democrats healthplan) makes explicit what was implicit in the Sacramento Bee story I posted about last night: he won’t sign a bill without an individual mandate. The Times quotes the Governor as saying any health care legislation he signs “needs to have mandatory healthcare coverage [...]

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[Source: The Alan Katz Health Care Reform Blog]